It seems to me that the Democrats could maintain their control of the California State House very easily: Davis resigns, Bustamente becomes governor, and the recall—as well as the vote for a new governor to replace Davis—becomes moot.

They can’t bring that up right now because it would sink Davis’ chances in the recall election.

However, if the polls are still bad in the week before the election, you’ll see enormous pressure on Davis to do just that. But Davis himself might feel that his political future would be better served by being run out of office by a vast right-wing conspiracy than by resigning his office in disgrace.

My suggestion wouldn’t “sink Davis’s chances in the recall election”; it would _cancel_ the recall election because David would no longer be governor.

On the the charge of vast right-wing conspiracy, it’s hard to see how that plays. California is a strongly Democratic state, and two thirds of the people want the governor out of office. How does that get interpreted as a right-wing coup? However, given the left’s tireless campaigns of lying, I suppose that’s not impossible either.

I meant that it would sink Davis chances to have prominent Democrats bring it up. And the right-wing conspiracy charge is one that I’ve already heard used against the recall a number of times. More often than any other argument, it seems to me.

The whole purpose, from the point of view of the Democrats, would not be to “avoid sinking Davis’s chances,” but to get Davis the heck out of there so that his Lieutenant Governor from Aztlan replaces him and the Republicans’ effort to take the governship is stopped in its tracks. Certainly if Davis remains down in the polls, that’s the way for the Democrats to go. They have that ace in the hole, and I don’t see what would prevent them from using it.

It’s not their decision to make. It’s completely up to Davis whether to resign or not. I don’t think I need to remind you of another Democrat in recent history who decided to drag his party through the mud instead of doing the honorable thing.

The best case scenario for the Democrats right now is for Davis to run a good campaign and win the recall election. The worst case for the Democrats is for Davis to stay until the bitter end and at the same time have Davis’ own party sabotage any chance of victory by frequent calls for Davis to resign. But you can be sure that if the polls look impossible in the last week or two, there will be concentrated pressure on Davis to do the right thing.

If this attempt to demonise Arnold by the liberal media is true, then, despite his stands on abortion and gay rights (which I disagree with of course), he may turn out to be at least a half way decent governor for a state which is effectively the front line of the Mexican invasion.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A53646-2003Aug13.html

By the way, this article was written by an America hating liberal, so you may not want to read it too soon after eating.

Mr. Auster said, “They have that ace in the hole, and I don’t see what would prevent them from using it.”

They can’t. At this point, even if Gov. Davis steps down and Lt. Gov. Aztlan takes his place the recall election will still go forward and the winner, (aka Mr. Schwarzenneger,) will become governor. This would also deprive Mr. Bustamante of his remaining 3 years as Lt. Gov., so it would be a net loss.

http://politics.slate.msn.com/id/2086755/
http://www.townhall.com/news/politics/200308/POL20030813c.shtml

I saw one article in Foxnews indicating that had the governor resigned before the signatures were collected and the recall certified, the lingering questions would have probably gone to the courts.

Too late now though! :-)

Thanks to Joel for the clarifications, though the issue is still muddy. The experts all say the recall vote would go forward even if Davis resigned. But this makes no sense. How do you vote on the recall of a person who is no longer in office? Nevertheless, that seems to be the case. A win for recall would then oust Gov. Aztlan, a lose for recall would leave Gov. Aztlan in place.

The upshot is, the assured escape hatch I thought I saw for the Dems does not exist.