I think its time for a decent third party candidate to make a strong conservative case before the electorate against Bush. This would do a good deal of damage to Bush in the present and bring out a great deal of benefit for American politics in the future.

This has been “a weave” in many threads here recently—“what about a Third Party”. The Constitution Party, writing in your favorite conservative or staying home see to be the choices for the coming election. There is some question as to whether Judge Roy Moore would suplant Mr. Petroutka of the Constitution Party, if he runs at all.

Regarding how big a chunk of the Base of the GOP and independent conservatives (who vote GOP 90% of the time) will abandon Bush is the $64,000 question.

I would like Mr. Auster’s opinion on “the numbers game”—what percentage of GOP voters (and independents who normally vote GOP) voting AGAINST Bush—either by abstaining or voting for another party—would it take to give the election to Kerry?

I am guessing only 10% would be needed. But then, what do I know? I bow to the experts.

“What percentage of GOP voters (and independents who normally vote GOP) voting AGAINST Bush—either by abstaining or voting for another party—would it take to give the election to Kerry?”

Well, the number of defectors it would take to defeat him depends entirely on how close the election is. As several mainstream Republican commentators have already pointed out, the disaffection from Bush is _already_ such that, in an election that would otherwise be a close Bush win, it could cause him to lose.

The newest poll (AP) shows Bush’s lowest approval rating to date—at 47%, down from the mid-50s just 6 weeks ago. That 47% marks the same low approval that his father had at the same point in his re-election bid. 50% in this poll say they disapprove of his performance.

While polls and public opinion could change, Bush has not been able to hold onto the bump he received after Saddam was captured. If one reads the fine print, the results of this poll state that while the GOP remains steadfastly behind him, Independent voters are going against him:

“Bush saw a drop in support among most demographic and regional groups, but those were most pronounced among voters with a high school education or less, voters over age 65, political independents and voters in the Midwest.” AP Poll

Those “Independents”—conservatives who left the GOP years ago and are voters “without a party”—are becoming a real problem for Bush. It is a given that Democrats hate Bush—they simply want their party back in power. Conservatives like me want the GOP completely gutted and filled with leaders who follow the Constitution and the plank of the Party. Since that doesn’t look possible anytime soon, with the RINOS firmly in control, there seems to be growing excitement and support for a third party. Whether that conservative anger towards the GOP—and Bush in particular—will lead to a vibrant and growing third party, no one knows for sure.

However, one thing IS for certain. The President is in real trouble with his base (or former base) as evidenced by his desperate attempts at “image enhancement” with a surprising “Meet The Press” interview Sunday. It will be interesting to see how and if he backtracks from his amnesty for illegals plan.

My gut feeling is, as with (the lunatic) Dean on the other side, Bush is finished. The anger is too deep. Many people that voted for him feel betrayed, and on the economic side, nobody in his or her right mind wants to endure another 2.5 to 3 years as we have since March 2001! The knowledge that economy does better under Democrat presidents—with the exception of the much of the Reagan years—and the lack of faith in Bush as a leader has to be having an effect. I expect the polls to go down much lower—into the 30s.

The supreme arrogance that this man showed with that immigration plan of his, the contempt that he showed for the rest of us, removes any sympathy I might have had for him. He was saying, “I don’t give a damn about you. You’re just going to have to accept my transformation of this country.”

But, to paraphrase Al Campanis in a famous racial comment in the 1980s, this guy does not have the wherewithall to justify his being so cocky and arrogant, thinking he can remake his country, remake the world, and everyone has to go along with it. He’s not a messiah or a Peter the Great or a Kemal Attaturk. But he acts like he thinks he’s one.