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My changing intuitions about the election
Ever since Kerry emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee last winter I have been saying that he had no realistic chance of winning the presidency. Polls showing Kerry ahead prior to the conventions had no effect on my view, which was not based on polls but on my perception of the kind of man Kerry is. Despite Bush’s spectacular flaws and failures, I thought it virtually impossible that the American electorate would choose a man like Kerry to be president. This week for the first time the thought/feeling came to me that Kerry could win. And for the first time in this process, polls played a role in my thinking. It was the fact that despite Bush’s energetic and confident performance in the second debate, the candidates are virtually tied among likely voters. What this meant was that the first debate had erased the steady lead Bush had had since the conventions, and the second debate had not recovered him from that. I was also astonished at a poll showing that 50 percent of Americans have a favorable impression of Kerry (53 percent favorable for Bush).
I still regard Bush as a strong favorite to win. Objectively, he is well ahead in most electoral vote projections; Gallup has him up by 312 to 207. But subjectively, at the moment, I don’t have the almost-certain sense I used to have that he will win. Email entry |