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What Kerry must do to win
Looking further at Mason-Dixon’s state-by-state poll numbers from last night (Captain’s Quarters blog has a more readable version of the chart than msnbc) and continuing my arbitrarily chosen but convenient method of putting them in conjunction with the Rasmussen Report’s list of toss-up states, we get these results. Rasmussen projects a Bush victory in states totaling 222 electoral votes, and a Kerry victory in states totaling 186 electoral votes, while 11 states are considered toss-up states. Of Rasmussen’s 11 toss-up states, Mason-Dixon shows Bush leading in six:
Florida—Bush, 49-45 (27 EV) Of those six, Ohio and Minnesota show only a two point margin for Bush, while the other four—Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada—show a four or more point margin for Bush. If we assume a Bush victory in the latter four states, that adds up to 49 electoral votes. 49 plus Bush’s Rasmussen-determined base of 222 equals 271 electoral votes, one more than is needed for victory. So, to overcome Bush’s advantage and win the election, Kerry has got to win Ohio and Minnesota, where he is currently behind by two points (a statistical tie), plus at least one of the states where Mason-Dixon now shows Bush ahead by four or more points. Notice also that in the four Rasmussen toss-up states that Kerry leads according to Mason-Dixon, he has no lead larger than two points.
Pennsylvania—Kerry, 48-46 (21 EV)
What this means is that to win the election, Kerry must win all the states in which he is currently in a statistical tie with Bush (that is, the four states in which Kerry is ahead by two, and the two states in which Bush is ahead by two), which would get him to 268 electoral votes (two short of the number needed for victory), and on top of that Kerry must win one of the states where Bush currently leads by four or more. Comments
On a closely related matter, Edwin Rubenstein has a very informative article over at VDARE today that discusses how mass immigration has effected the apportionment of electoral votes. Because apportionment is based on population - including the number of non-citizens - some states with huge numbers of aliens like California and New York have gained electoral votes while others with fewer aliens have lost. The same phenomenom is taking place with apportionment for the US House. Once again, the Bushite Republicans are on a path to suicide with their open-borders agenda. California and New York are now Democratic strongholds. That wasn’t the case two decades ago in California’s case. Like all liberals, the Bushites have an innate death wish. But, hey, it doesn’t matter to the plaid-pants guys running the RNC as long as the sale is made - even if it is for the rope that the reconquistadores and their Dem allies will use to hang them with tomorrow. Posted by: Carl on October 31, 2004 2:14 PMPew just released their poll with Bush up +3. Good news for 43 because Pew includes Saturday numbers, is a Democratic leaning poll, and had Bush tied several days ago. Posted by: j.hagan on October 31, 2004 7:05 PM |