The problem in Iraq is civil war

A VFR reader, who is an Indian citizen living in the West, has an interesting response to my recent thoughts about the Iraq disaster:

The suicide attacks in Iraq are the work of foreign jihadis, young men from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere who volunteer to come to Iraq for the express purpose of wiping innocent Iraqis 20 or 50 at a time, in order to create such chaos and misery that the new government will fall and an Islamist regime will take its place.

Actually, I think the attacks fall within two categories:

(1) Sectarian attacks on Kurds and Shiites by Sunnis; and

(2) Attacks on Iraqi security personnel and army members.

The Sunnis see any new government as an expression of Shiite and Kurdish power. This is a reversal of the Saddam regime when they called all the shots and the Shiites and Kurds were the oppressed. I hate to say this, but in a country like that democracy cannot work because everyone sees it as a zero sum game—if the Sunnis win (as under Saddam), the Kurds and Shiites lose. If the Shiites and Kurds win, Sunnis lose.

One option might be to partition the country along sectarian lines. But this could have several unintended consequences. Iraq’s greatest asset is Oil and that is located disproportionately in Kurdish and Shiite areas. Also, most parts of Iraq (so far as I can tell) are not 100 percent Shiite, Sunni or Kurdish. Talk of partition would escalate the sectarian violence and basically escalate this civil war.

There are simply no easy solutions in Iraq. The best thing would have been if the US hadn’t gone in, but thats a moot point now. The US cannot exit because the attacks will keep escalating and Iraq’s fledgling police forces and security forces won’t be able to control the situation. But if the US stays on, it will get much much worse. Many coalition partners are talking about leaving Iraq now. If they do that, it makes life even harder for the US military.

In the US, enlistment is falling off drastically. The military cannot recruit more people now it seems, so there’s little fresh blood coming in. In the meantime, more soldiers are dying or getting maimed. It’s a disaster.

Regards.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at May 12, 2005 11:13 AM | Send