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A modified withdrawal plan for Iraq
Juan Cole, a thoughtful leftist war critic, says that simply withdrawing from Iraq at this point would lead to civil war and possible region-wide chaos and damage to the entire world economy, which, as he points out, includes poor and working people, a fact the left ignores when it derides oil. He accordingly offers a plan to avoid a catastrophe while reducing direct U.S. involvement in Iraq. It’s similar to an idea that was put forward at VFR a year or more ago (see below). What Cole proposes is that we withdraw U.S. troops from Iraqi population centers in central Iraq, while using U.S. airpower to support the government against its internal foes. Cole points out that this would parallel what was done in Afghanistan, where the Northern Alliance defeated the Taliban with the help of overwhelming U.S. air support but with very few U.S. personnel on the ground. I wrote on November 1, 2004:
It is unacceptable to let our soldiers and marines keep being killed when their deaths are not leading to a victory that would justify the sacrifice. We must either become more serious about defeating the terrorists and bringing stability and self-government to the country (and the latter is not possible without the former), or, if we determine that a victory over the terrorists is not possible or requires measures beyond what we are willing to do, then a radical change of strategy is called for. One proposal that ought to be considered is to have our forces make a strategic withdrawal to a secure place in Iraq, perhaps somewhere in Kurdistan, where they would be welcome, and from that location seek to influence events in the country, primarily in the troubled Sunni areas, without trying to control Iraq directly as we are now. Through a mix of material assistance, threats, promises, and an occasional quick raid, we might be able to nudge the elements of Iraqi society toward constructing a viable order, something that we cannot do for them. If civil war breaks out between the Sunnis and Shi’ites, we should not see that as the end of the world; we can tilt to the side we favor and so work toward an acceptable outcome in Iraq without wasting our men’s precious lives in the process. The approach suggested here would not be an out-and-out retreat from Iraq, and thus would avoid the appearance of a humiliating defeat.What Cole adds to my suggestion is the systematic use of American air power, à la Afghanistan, to help our favored side, the Iraqi government, defeat our common enemy or at least maintain itself in existence.
Let me add that the same concept, of withdrawing from direct involvement in Muslim countries, while continuing to influence events via long-range projection of U.S. power, could apply to the U.S. role in the Gulf region as a whole, as I wrote in June 2004. Email entry |