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Rapid developments in Israel-Hezbollah war
Earlier today a correspondent sent me an article from Stratfor.com, the subscription-only geopolitical intelligence site, arguing that if a cease-fire occurred without the Israelis’ having destroyed Hezbollah in Lebanon, it would be the first time in Israel’s history that the Israel Defense Forces had failed to defeat an enemy in direct battle, and that a loss of the IDF’s reputation for invincibility would have fateful repercussions for Israel’s security. The author said that Israeli leaders must be aware of this problem, and he urged that they embark on a serious offensive against Hezbollah. Now I’ve received a second Stratfor article following hard on the first telling of preliminary signs that a major new Israeli ground offensive is underway deep in southern Lebanon, including a possible drive from the northern Israeli panhandle in the east toward Qana in the West, instead of a simple push northwards from the Israeli border. “This is of great importance,” the report says, “because it indicates that the armor massed in the panhandle is moving in a broad encirclement as per traditional IDF doctrine.” This would suggest that the Israelis now intend to root out and destroy Hezbollah, or at least destroy it as a force capable of attacking Israel. At the same time, an IDF spokesman said the IDF would do their job and then leave, avoiding an occupation in which Hezbollah could carry out Iraq-type insurgency operations against the Israelis.
The report says that the signs are still uncertain and that we will not know until tomorrow whether or not a major shift in Israeli strategy has occurred. Email entry |