Does the war sink Rudy’s chances?

Bobby writes:

I fear you are missing the main reason not to nominate Giuliani as the Republican presidential candidate: he is totally unelectable. Giuliani is a gigantic supporter of the Iraq debacle. If Bush can only manage a pitiful 30% approval rating for this war, how can anyone say with a straight face that Giuliani has even a modicum of a chance at ever winning the general election? He will not motivate the conservative base so much as he will repulse it, he will not bring over moderates or liberals since the Democratic machine will showcase his support of Bush and Iraq. There is simply no way Giuliani can win. That is the most effective argument you can make, even more than his disgraceful morality, in getting people to think critically about what a dismal failure his candidacy, or for that matter even a McCain candidacy, would turn out to be. They both would be tied to the utterly hated Bush administration and dragged into the electoral abyss.

After you have established the proposition that he is simply unelectable, then bring out his miserable moral failings, how his amnesty would ruin America, his social liberalism, and how he seems to emulate all the flaws of the Bush administration.

LA replies:

But according to his promoters (e.g. Barbara Lerner in yesterday’s NRO), the very reason conservatives support Giuliani is that they see him as not like Bush, but as Bush Plus—that is, believing in the WOWYWTCI (the war on whatever you want to call it), but having an aggression and follow through that Bush lacks. So they don’t see him as the mere continuation of Bush, but as more effective replacement for Bush.

However, I must say it is odd that McCain’s support has ebbed, in significant part because of his marriage of himself to Bush’s Iraq policy, while Giuliani,’ who supports the same policy, has surged. Perhaps it is because McCain has been a very vocal champion of Bush, while Giuliani says little but coasts on conservatives’ fantasies of him as a strong leader.

In any case I do not agree that Giuliani is totally unelectable because of the war. Remember just a couple of months ago it looked as though Bush’s Iraq policy had lost all support; but, as a result of the absence of any apparently acceptable alternative, the policy still continues. The same dynamic may well remain in play during the 2008 election.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at March 20, 2007 05:55 PM | Send