Amazing decline in murder in New York City continues

In 1990 there were 2,245 homicides in New York City. So far in 2007 there have been 412 homicides, and in only 35 cases were the victim and killer unknown to each other, an astonishingly low number, though it may turn out to be somewhat higher, since, as the New York Times reports, only half the cases have been analyzed so far. Many of the murders involved people killing each other over drugs. Of the 412 homicides, 96 victims and 149 assailants were people with previous narcotics arrests. Also, 77 percent of the assailants had a previous arrest history, while 70 percent of the victims did.

Of the assailants, 61 percent were black, 31 percent Hispanic, and seven percent white. Of the victims, 66 percent were black, 26 percent Hispanic and seven percent white. The close match in each racial group between the assailant rate and victim rate fits the fact that over 90 percent of the homicides involved killers and victims who knew each other. Also, the fact that there were five percent more black victims than black assailants, and five percent more Hispanic assailants than Hispanic victims, suggests that five percent of the victims were blacks killed by Hispanics.

The decline of murder in New York has continued even as the murder rate in other cities has been increasing in recent years.

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Mark Jaws writes:

This is just an observation based on my own 22-year long experience with the underclass in NYC, but I believe that the HIV/AIDS epidemic of the 1980’s and 1990’s devastated the baby boomer crime producing element before it had a chance to reproduce itself in large numbers. Just about every one of the hard core criminals whom I personally knew, including my former brother in-law, and one of my sister’s various mating partners, and the prostitute, drug-addict sister of my best friend, has died of AIDS. No doubt had these cretin lived longer, they would have spawned newer cadres of criminals contributing to the crime rate today. While I don’t know how effective the “welfare reform” of the 1990’s was in reducing the birthrate of the criminal class, I would bet AIDS, which disproportionately strikes not only the male homosexual, but the heroin addict and rampantly promiscuous as well, has played a major role.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at November 23, 2007 09:33 PM | Send