Will McCain, now back from the dead, end up as the last man left standing?
That’s Robert Novak’s
thesis, based on his conversations with “canny Republican professionals.” Just a couple of weeks ago it was being said that a Huckabee win in Iowa, by damaging Romney, would propel Giuliani to the nomination. But Giuliani’s liabilities—which this website has been pointing to more insistently than any other publication in the country for the last year—are now widely recognized, and his prospects have accordingly declined, with even his erstwhile neocon supporters deserting him. Another candidate for “last man left standing” has been Thompson, but Novak says Thompson’s not even in the race. That leaves the miraculously resurrected McCain.
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From: James W.
Re: McVain
No chance in this world. There are several excellent reasons, but the one that is not excellent would finish him by itself: he is too old and too cranky.
The stronger candidates will take turns being toppled from the top because each has fatal flaws. It is more likely than not that this will be decided at the Convention. When was the last time that happened?
Who would have the skills and moxie to prevail in a convention selection? Forget Huckabee. McCain, Romney, Giuliani. Perhaps McCain would still be in that one. But I would guess Romney and Guliani, and Romney might be the less polorizing choice.
We may be better off having to vomit up the consequences of our accumulated ignorance a la Jimmy Carter leading to Reagan, and form a real conservative program for 2012.
LA replies:
I agree that McCain is extremely unlikely.
Steven Warshawsky writes:
While I don’t put much stock in polling, it appears that Rudy Giuliani continues to enjoy a significant lead over his GOP rivals, on a state-by-state basis. From a Daily News story (12/20/07):
“The numbers are important, because with each state victory comes a share of the 1,191 delegate votes a GOP hopeful will need to capture his party’s nomination.
“If Giuliani wins all 13 of the primary states where he now leads in the polls and that vote by Feb. 5, he’ll collect 758 delegates, a Daily News analysis found.
“That’s roughly two-thirds of the delegates needed to win the nomination, and more than four times the 170 delegates that Giuliani’s closest rival, Huckabee, would amass by Feb. 5 if he wins everywhere he is leading now.”
Talk of Giuliani’s demise is greatly exaggerated.
Novak’s suggestion that McCain might end up with the nomination is far-fetched, at best. His entire analysis is premised on the absurd observation that if McCain wins in New Hampshire (after Huckabee beats Romney in Iowa), “he will be favored to sweep through subsequent primaries despite his meager finances and organization.” Favored by whom? This is just another example of how the media and professional commentariat cannot resist turning political contests into horseraces with ever-changing “leaders” and “dark horses” to alternately bash and hype. For no other reason than to keep things interesting and fill column inches. See especially Dick Morris. This is mostly sophisticated-sounding nonsense.
LA replies:
I agree. Novak’s claim that McCain is the favorite to win the nomination, based on what “in the know” Republican insiders are telling him, is absurd. The prince of darkness is at it again.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at December 27, 2007 12:56 PM | Send