It ain’t over

Here’s a more hopeful view of Super Tuesday and the campaign as a whole from Hugh Hewitt. The hope comes from the fact that the overwhelming majority of Super Tuesday states are not winner-take-all. Assuming a worst case scenario for Romney, in which the votes in the non-winner-take-all states break down 50 percent for McCain, 30 for Romney, and 20 for Huckabee, then according to Hewitt the total cumulative delegate count at the end of Super Tuesday would be (and again this is assuming the worst case for Romney, with no Romney surge):

McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.

Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney. It isn’t pretty, but it is far, far from over.

Meanwhile, Jim Geraghy at NRO adds up projections for all the Super Tuesday states and ends up with this:

That would put things at about McCain at 500+ (needing 1,191 to be the nominee), Romney at 325, Huckabee at 230 or so.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at January 31, 2008 12:29 PM | Send