Polls and projections

Much of the media are pushing heavily for McCain. In today’s New York Post and New York Daily News, columnists are saying it’s all over after tomorrow. They say Romney will drop out unless he wins a major upset, which won’t happen. Is there any truth to this? I don’t know. What I do know is that these commentators are declaring as a factual certainty that which they want to be true. This is not news, and it’s not responsible prediction; it is manipulation of public opinion. One of the major reasons to hope for a Romney victory is to defeat these people who are trying to control us. The push for the “inevitable” McCain nomination feels like the push for the open borders bill last year, but with less wind at our backs.

A counter voice is heard from Romney’s number one promoter, Hugh Hewitt. Hewitt of course is far from an impartial observer, but his hopeful scenarios at least make reference to facts. He says several polls show a tremendous rally to Romney in California, Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee.

He references two detailed tables at the Right for America blog that show how Romney can win the nomination. The first table shows the distribution of delegates after tomorrow if the Super Tuesday states vote according to the most recent polls: McCain 701; Romney 414; Huckabee 183.

Then:

The table below shows what Romney must do for victory if the likely scenario above plays out on 2/5. Essentially—Romney must win the three remaining winner-take all states AND he must beat McCain by an average margin of 61.45% to 38.54% in the other states. That is how Romney can reach the magic number of 1,191 delegates. This isn’t pretty, but (given the opposition to McCain in the GOP) this isn’t out of reach.

For Romney to win by 61 to 39 in all the remaining states seems impossible. Therefore, if Romney is to have a shot, it seems to me that he must do better tomorrow than the polls now show.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at February 04, 2008 10:35 PM | Send