VFR pundit predicts Hillary will take the nomination

Dimitri K. writes:

Have you heard that Hillary’s name may be put up for nomination at the Democratic convention? Can it be that they realized their mistake with Obama? I won’t put a lot of money on this bet, but my dollar against yours that Hillary will be our next president. If I lose I will lose a dollar, but if I win I will be the only commenter who has predicted such an outcome.

LA replies:

It is the case that Obama’s status as presumptive nominee is not based on any legal guarantee. The delegates who put him over the top are not pledged delegates, but super delegates who have declared their support for Obama, but who under the rules remain as free as the wind to vote any way they like. They could vote for Hillary, or they could abstain, preventing Obama from winning on the first ballot, after which the pledged delegates would be free to vote as they like and the nomination would be wide open.

But as much as I would like to see this happen (because I want McCain to lose, and I think Hillary would be more likely to defeat McCain and be less damaging to the country than Obama), I consider it impossible. Obama has been the presumptive nominee for several months. For him to be deprived of the nomination at this very late date would open up traumatic divisions within the Democratic party that would not be healed before election day or even for a long time thereafter. Therefore, I am positive that even those Democratic super delegates who are starting to see Obama’s weaknesses and think he may lose to McCain, will nevertheless vote for him, on the basis that it’s better for the party to go down to defeat as a unified party, than to shatter itself by dumping Obama at this point.

So, you and I have a bet. However, in fairness to you I think your bet should be that Hillary will win the nomination, not that she will win both the nomination and the election. Let’s take one thing at a time. That way, if the impossible happens and she wins the nomination, you won’t have to wait until November to get your dollar.

Dimitri replies:

You believe Democrats will not split their party, whereas Republicans did split their party. Therefore, you think of Democrats better than of Republicans. At least, you believe that Democrats are a party, whereas of Republicans as a kind of a Trust with limited responsibility

LA replies:

But is it the case that the Republicans have split? What about the farcical drama, outlined by our female reader, in which Rush Limbaugh, who several months ago was passionately anti-McCain (so much so that I became persuaded that GOP unity behind McCain was unlikely) is now whooping it up for McCain? What about the legions of conservatives who acted as if they would oppose to the death the Dark Lord of the Comprehensive Black Death Act of 2007, but who now seem to have come around? What about the fact that, contrary to everyone’s expectations, McCain over the last month has held even with Obama in the polls and now is even a little ahead? What about the fact that 81 percent of Republicans support McCain? So the split you say happened did not happen. Further, if enough Republicans have united behind McCain up to this point to make him competitive notwithstanding his past numerous unforgivable treasons, what makes you so sure that any future treasons, such as his naming Lieberman as his running mate, would result in a split in the GOP fatal to its chances?

John D. writes:

Just as big city Mayors are paralyzed with fear at the prospect of doing anything that looks like they’ve crossed the black community, you can bet your bottom dollar that the DIMocrat party is also paralyzed by the same fear. So a change to Hillary at the last minute at the convention, just ain’t gonna happen. And, Obama’s opponent, the tired Juan McCain, will never measure up to the office. Only about 20 percent of Americans can stand Bush, and they’re not about to wait in line at the polls to vote for the RINO Bush 2.

Now, Obama’s poll numbers are much less impressive than the DIMs have thought they would be at this point. People have spoken about Biden, but I think Obama will choose Hillary as his vice presidential pick, and that will about sew up this election for Obama. The DIMs aren’t going to lose sight of the gold ring at this late date. Hillary will be asked, and she will accept, and the DIMs will go wild.

LA replies:

I must say, given Obama’s increasing difficulties, I agree with you that picking Hillary might be his strongest move. Instead of splitting the Democratic party (as de-throning Obama would do), it would unite it.

While this is a little off-topic, let’s add that while Hillary showed a lot of grit in the campaign, she also displayed appallingly bad judgment. Her failure to contest the ten caucus states after Super Tuesday, even though she knew from Iowa onward that she would be in a protracted fight with Obama, suggests a profound level of incompetence. She’s had two major executive positions in her life, leading the health care task force in 1993-94 and running her presidential campaign, and both were miserable failures. Also astonishing was that she ran for president based on having been the president’s wife, rather than based on her six years as a U.S. senator. The woman simply lacks good judgment. Though maybe it’s less a matter of bad judgment than of a dullness, a lack of perceptiveness.

Which doesn’t change my opinion that on balance she would be less harmful to the country than McCain or Obama. Her bad judgment (or her insensibility) is balanced by her innate caution, a quality that seems to be lacking in both the hot-headed geezer and the messiah.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at August 20, 2008 07:21 PM | Send