Open-immigration advocates predict that amnesty will be passed in first six months of McCain presidency

The editors of a pro-open borders, immigration-law website called Immigration Daily argue that McCain will be better for the the open-borders cause than Obama. Here is their reasoning. If Obama is elected, he and the Democratic Congress will have four big, complex prioritities higher than immigration that will consume their attention, so immigration will not be addressed for a long time if at all. If McCain is elected, he and the Democratic Congress will be at loggerheads on most issues. The only major area on which they will agree and be able to accomplish anything will be comprehensive immigration reform. Therefore, the editors conclude, “We expect to see almost all of the original McCain-Kennedy bill become law during the first six months of a McCain Presidency.”

Here is the the article:

McCain Kennedy Reborn

If immigration is your number one political priority, what should you do this election?

We begin with the observation that Democrats will likely consolidate and expand their control of the Senate and the House. This is good news for the immigration cause. However, in spite of controlling Congress for the past two years Democrats have done virtually nothing on immigration benefits and have continued massive spending on immigration enforcement. So, even though most political analysts are agreed that Democrats are poised for significant gains in the House and the Senate, that alone does not portend any immigration benefits in the coming years.

With that background, let us examine the difference in prospects for immigration benefits on Jan 20, 2009 if we get President Obama or if we get President McCain.

If we get President Obama, Democrats are going to be euphoric on Jan 20, 2009, and rightly so—being back in the White House, at last, after 8 long and bitter years. Democrats have not been able to pursue their priorities for 8 years and we can expect them to act aggressively on their big priorities immediately after a President Obama takes office. There are at least four Democratic priorities ahead of immigration: the Iraq war, universal health care, budget/taxes and energy policy. These are all large, complex issues and Congress will take most of a President Obama’s first term to work on these. In such a scenario, we will not see any significant immigration benefits in the foreseeable future.

If we get President McCain, we will still have a powerful Democratic majority in Congress on Jan 20, 2009. This Congress will be at loggerheads with him on all the major Democratic priorities. Democrats will want to bring the troops home whereas Mr. McCain wants them in Iraq for 100 years; Democrats see a health care crisis whereas Mr. McCain sees none; Democrats will want increased taxes whereas Mr. McCain would like to cut them; Democrats want to conserve oil and work on alternative sources of power whereas Mr. McCain would like to drill for oil all over the map. Democrats and a President McCain will be 180 degrees apart on all major Democratic priorities. In this bitter fighting hardly anything will get done legislatively, and both Democrats and Mr. McCain will be looking for opportunities to show the country that they can work on something together.

While there are a few areas of agreement between Mr. McCain and Democrats, immigration is the largest issue on which Democrats and McCain agree. While the current Republican Party platform is the most anti-immigrant one in memory, there were news reports that Mr. McCain, who has a long track record of being pro-immigration, tried to make it more immigration-friendly and failed. This is the issue on which he is most likely to stab his party’s anti-immigrationist wing in the back both in his political interests and due to his own convictions (Mr. McCain had to fight his party’s anti-immigrationists tooth and nail during the Republican primaries). We expect to see almost all of the original McCain-Kennedy bill become law during the first six months of a McCain Presidency.

The Bush era has been the worst in memory for immigration advocates. However the combination of a powerful Democratic majority in Congress with Mr. McCain as President offers the best hope for speedily obtaining desperately needed immigration benefits.

We welcome readers to share their opinion and ideas with us by writing to editor@ilw.com.

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Alan Roebuck writes:

The article you posted, as I see it, makes a reasonable argument for voting for Obama: The top Democratic priorities they list, which they predict would consume all of the first term of President Obama, are all negatives that are more easily reversible than “comprehensive immigration reform” which they see as President McCain’s focus. And of course, with President McCain, “immigration reform” is a near certainty, whereas with President Obama, his agenda will face opposition.

I’m’ not saying they are right, and certainly not that I’m planning on voting for Obama. I’m just saying that’s the reasonable conclusion of their argument.

Paul Nachman writes:

I’d already seen this or something very similar. It gives me chills. It’s no surprise.

However, this sentence, “The Bush era has been the worst in memory for immigration advocates,” shows that we’re dealing with people whose grasp of reality—at least some aspects of it—is tenuous.

LA replies:

Yes, but the fact that way-out open borders people see McCain as better for their cause than Obama is striking.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at September 19, 2008 10:38 AM | Send