Slight tightening in race

(Note: As of early Monday morning, one day after the below entry, Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby shows Obama six points ahead and the RCP nat’l average shows him 5.5 points ahead.)

McCain is just three points behind Obama, 45 to 48 percent, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released today. “For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent. There is no question something has happened,” John Zogby says. However, this is just one poll, and I was doubtful that it meant anything, until I looked at the Real Clear Politics national average, where Obama is up by 4.9 points. That’s the first time in maybe three weeks that Obama’s lead in the RCP average has been less than five, so maybe something is happening. (Unfortunately RCP does not have a history of its past national averages so that we can trace their changes.) Since McCain’s relative improvement can’t be due to his own pathetic performance, could it be that we are witnessing a gain by Diana West’s third candidate (fear of Obama’s radicalism), or perhaps by my alternative third candidate (uncertainty borne of the fact that no one really knows who Obama is or what he stands for)?

Meanwhile, in RCP’s electoral projections, Obama is ahead 286 to 155, with Obama’s lead reduced somewhat from the last time I looked several days ago. The change seems mostly to consist of Florida’s having been moved from the Obama column to toss-up status.

As an honest expression of where I’m coming from, when the slightly tightening race raised the possibility of a come-from-behind McCain victory, part of me felt relief at the thought of no President Obama in our future, but a larger part of me felt a wave of meaninglessness and despair at the thought of McCain as president; of Palin as vice president (will she hold Trig triumphantly over her head when she’s sworn in?) and a heart beat from the presidency; of the near total destruction of conservatism consummated by conservatives’ support for Palin and McCain; and of the country plunged into even greater left-wing pathology and hatred by the continuation of Republican rule.

Meanwhile, a well-known Irish bookmaker, Paddy Power, is so sure that Obama will win that he’s announced he’s handing out winnings to those who betted on Obama. This news discourages me at the thought that Obama might win after all, but it also…. You get the idea.

- end of initial entry -

Shrewsbury writes:

“Unfortunately RCP does not have a history of its past national averages so that we can trace their changes”

Happily, Shrewsbury has kept a record of the RCP average for nearly every day since July 4th:

date McC Obam diff

Oct 19 43.8 48.8 -5.0 [LA note: early this morning or late last night the gap was 4.9.]
Oct 18 43.1 49.6 -6.5
Oct 17 42.6 49.5 -6.9
Oct 16 42.7 49.5 -6.8
Oct 15 42.5 49.8 -7.3
Oct 14 42.1 50.2 -8.1
Oct 13 42.9 50.1 -7.2
Oct 12 42.4 49.7 -7.3
Oct 11 42.3 49.9 -7.6
Oct 10 42.8 49.4 -6.6
Oct 09 43.5 49.1 -5.6
Oct 08 43.9 49.0 -5.1
Oct 07 44.1 49.6 -5.5
Oct 06 43.6 49.8 -6.2
Oct 05 43.3 49.3 -6.0
Oct 04 43.4 49.3 -5.9
Oct 03 43.4 49.2 -5.8
Oct 02 43.3 49.0 -5.7
Oct 01 43.6 48.9 -5.3
Sep 29 43.3 47.9 -4.6
Sep 28 43.1 47.9 -4.8
Sep 27 43.6 47.9 -4.3
Sep 26 43.7 47.9 -4.2
Sep 25 44.5 47.8 -3.3
Sep 24 44.4 47.9 -3.5
Sep 23 45.7 48.0 -2.3
Sep 22 45.4 48.1 -2.7
Sep 21 45.4 47.6 -2.2
Sep 20 45.3 47.6 -2.3
Sep 19 45.4 47.3 -1.9
Sep 18 45.2 47.1 -1.9
Sep 17 45.7 45.7 0.0
Sep 16 46.3 45.0 +1.3
Sep 15 46.3 44.7 +1.6
Sep 14 47.4 45.3 +2.1
Sep 13 47.4 45.0 +2.4
Sep 12 47.4 45.1 +2.3
Sep 11 47.7 45.2 +2.5
Sep 10 47.4 45.2 +2.2
Sep 9 48.0 45.6 +2.4
Sep 08 48.3 45.4 +2.9
Sep 07 46.7 45.7 +1.0
Sep 06 44.2 46.6 -2.4
Sep 05 44.0 46.6 -2.6
Sep 04 43.2 47.6 -4.4
Sep 03 43.0 48.8 -5.8
Sep 02 42.8 49.2 -6.4
Aug 31 44.3 48.8 -4.5
Aug 30 43.8 47.7 -3.9
Aug 29 43.8 47.7 -3.9
Aug 28 44.3 47.2 -2.9
Aug 27 44.7 46.5 -1.8
Aug 26 44.0 45.7 -1.7

Aug 25 43.9 45.5 -1.6
Aug 24 44.0 45.7 -1.7
Aug 23 43.4 45.0 -1.6
Aug 22 43.4 44.8 -1.4
Aug 21 43.4 44.9 -1.5
Aug 20 43.9 45.1 -1.2
Aug 19 42.5 45.5 -3.0
Aug 18 41.8 45.4 -3.6
Aug 17 41.8 45.2 -3.4
Aug 16 41.8 45.0 -3.2
Aug 15 41.7 45.2 -3.5
Aug 14 41.7 45.9 -4.2
Aug 13 42.2 46.8 -4.6
Aug 12 42.0 46.8 -4.8
Aug 11 42.0 46.8 -4.8
Aug 10 42.2 46.6 -4.4
Aug 09 43.3 46.9 -3.6
Aug 08 43.3 46.9 -3.6
Aug 07 43.3 46.9 -3.6
Aug 06 43.4 46.9 -3.5
Aug 05 44.5 47.3 -2.8
Aug 04 44.3 46.6 -2.3
Aug 03 43.9 46.6 -2.7
Aug 02 43.9 46.5 -2.6
Aug 01 43.9 46.5 -2.6
Jul 31 43.9 46.8 -2.9
Jul 30 43.9 46.9 -3.0
Jul 29 43.7 46.2 -2.5
Jul 28 43.3 46.5 -3.2
Jul 27 41.7 46.7 -5.0
Jul 26 41.7 46.5 -4.8
Jul 25 41.6 46.4 -4.8
Jul 24 42.0 46.0 -4.0
Jul 23 41.3 46.1 -4.8
Jul 22 41.5 45.8 -4.3
Jul 21 41.3 46.0 -4.7
Jul 20 41.4 45.9 -4.5
Jul 19 41.6 45.8 -4.2
Jul 18 41.8 45.9 -4.1
Jul 17 41.8 45.9 -4.1
Jul 16 42.3 47.1 -4.8
Jul 15 42.5 47.0 -4.5
Jul 14 42.6 46.6 -4.0
Jul 13 42.6 46.4 -3.8
Jul 12 42.6 46.8 -4.2
Jul 11 42.2 47.0 -4.8
Jul 10 42.6 48.1 -5.5
Jul 09 43.0 48.2 -5.2
Jul 08 42.8 48.3 -5.5
Jul 07 42.8 48.5 -5.7
Jul 06 42.7 48.7 -6.0
Jul 05 42.8 48.5 -5.7
Jul 04 41.9 47.6 -5.7

LA replies:

Apparently Shrewsbury assiduously copied and saved the RCP average day by day since the beginning of July? I am impressed! This is very useful information to have. See how McCain was consistently behind Obama, except for a period of about 10 days following the GOP convention, and then Obama took the lead again.

Also note that the last time Obama led McCain by less than five points in the RCP average was September 29. When I said in the initial entry that today was the first time in about three weeks that Obama was less than five points ahead of McCain, that was a guess based on rough memory, but it turns out to have been exactly correct.

Gintas writes:

“Unfortunately RCP does not have a history of its past national averages so that we can trace their changes.”

But they do have it, right there in the graph below the table. That’s their RCP poll average, over time. Roll your mouse pointer over it, and it will give you the numbers on any given day. I have the mouse over the last day, and it shows a difference of 5.0, which is what the table above shows for the latest day.

LA replies:

I had found the graph too hard to decipher I didn’t know about the using the pointer; thanks for that. But I find a table so much easier to read, then you can see the numbers and their progression at a glance without laborously looking back and forth between any spot on the graph and the Y axis. They should have one. Alternatively, the graphic could just be easier to read.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 19, 2008 04:30 PM | Send