The argument that McCain will win

There is a contingent of writers, thinkers, and self-described gnostic prophets who are saying that McCain is about to win the greatest presidential upset ever. Among them (I mean, among the writers and thinkers, not among the gnostic prophets) is Steven Warshawsky, who writes:

I’ve been out of touch for a long time now, due to my leaving my DOJ job and opening my own firm. But today I was trying to catch up on VFR and saw that you linked to my recent McCain piece at American Thinker. Thanks. Just one correction, I have, in fact, challenged the accuracy of polling in this election, and linked to two pieces about that in the “Signs” article. I may be wrong, of course. We’ll see in a few more days. I deeply hope my prediction turns out to be correct, of course. Like Ryder, I think this election is potentially a point of no return for the country (as I’ve stated before on VFR and in my “Multiculturalism” article on AT). On the one hand, I’m optimistic about the election. I believe Obama is going to be defeated and the entire MSM/Democratic Party/polling propaganda machine will be seen for what it is (at least until the next election). I don’t think we’re as far gone as many conservatives fear. Not yet. On the other hand, I lack the optimism of those who think that a renewed conservative/traditionalist movement will be sparked by an Obama presidency. I think an Obama presidency is much more likely to be “strike three” (after the New Deal and Great Society). Granted, something constructive may emerge from the socialist, multicultural ashes of an Obama presidency, but it won’t be the United States of America as we understand it. I see a McCain presidency as a slight brake on the destructive trajectory we’re heading on. I think, like Bush, McCain will be more responsive to conservative concerns than Obama (backed by a Democratic Congress) ever would be. And we have four years to try to further energize the conservative movement and find more philosophically and politically compelling leadership.

LA replies:

Quite a few people (James Lewis at American Thinker yesterday; a commenter on Lewis’s article named Teleologicus; Rocco DiPippo, now in Kuwait; and other correspondents), have been saying with great assurance that they think McCain will win. I simply don’t see the objective evidence for this. Do you think all the polls are so badly biased that they’re consistently off by seven or more points?

Steven Warshawsky replies:

Yes, I really do think the polls are crap. The polls suggesting there will be an Obama landslide (most of them) are ridiculous. No way the country has changed that much in just 4 years. So these polls have to be discarded completely, not included in some bogus, non-scientific “average” as RCP does. The “best” poll, IBD, shows a 2-point Obama lead—within the margin of error—with 8% undecided. This sounds about right to me. Very close, with a significant pool of “undecideds.” I think those people (almost all of whom are white) go to the polls tomorrow, and once inside the booth, pull the lever against Obama. The media’s story will be the amazing McCain “come back,” but I don’t think he ever was “behind.” The election takes place tomorrow. It’s not a 9-inning game. The polls aren’t real, just predictions based on the pollsters’ assumptions and expectations, e.g., that there will be historic turnouts among black and “young” voters, with no corresponding rise in working-class white voters. I think there is very deep opposition to Obama among many white voters, including Democrats. They aren’t going to vote for a candidate whom they perceive as unpatriotic, anti-white, and undeserving of the position (i.e., an affirmative action candidate). I could be wrong, of course. I hope not!

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Another person who thinks McCain will win is Rocco DiPippo, who sent this e-mail to his list:

Hi folks. Here’s the link to my latest American Thinker article.
BTW, stay away from the inner cities tomorrow unless you’re out of your mind (or heavily armed)—I think McCain will win, throwing the peace-loving Obamabots into a paroxysm of ultraviolence.

LA replies:

What makes you think McCain will win, given that he’s been consistently over six points behind in national polls and very far behind in electoral polls?

Rocco DiPippo replies:

What makes me think McCain will win is what I call the “Obamabot Effect.” The polls are way off, I think. Here’s why: Almost all the data for the polls we’re seeing is gathered by telephone. I think Obama has far more wildly enthusiastic supporters than McCain has. Obama supporters, who love to oooh and ahhhh and sing! and dance! and meditate and pray and talk about their Messiah, are far less likely to hang up on a pollster or ignore his calls than a “McCaniac” is. Also, there will be a lot of people who’ll vote for McCain simply to stop Obama—they’re even less enthusiastic then outright McCain supporters and hence very likely to ignore a pollster’s dinner time phone call. Add to this mix the number of people who are very angry at the LeftMedia’s Obama-rumpswabbery—a lot of them will outright lie when they get a polling call by saying they’ll be voting for Obama when they’re not. Just my humble opinion, which I dearly hope is correct.

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Andrew W. writes:

Bob Krumm breaks it down state-by-state and predicts a McCain victory.

Vox Day predicts a McCain victory as well. His reasoning: the polls always favor the Democrat. I believe the Republican presidential candidate has always ultimately done better than the polls predicted. Two, the “enthusiastic young voters” that comprise a key Obama demographic tend to talk about voting more than they actually vote. Three, Obama depends heavily on the young, first-time voters, and non-whites. There is some evidence that the turnout amongs these key demographics will be less than what Obama needs. I still think Obama will win, but I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t.

LA writes:

Andrew W. asked me if I’m swayed by the arguments that McCain would win.

The Bob Krumm predictions are very interesting. He goes through all the battleground states and finds only two Red states from 2004 going Blue: Iowa and New Mexico, while GOP picks up Pennsylvania. He projects Obama winning the popular vote by four tenths of a percent while McCain wins the presidency with 273 electoral votes.

I don’t have a knowledge base to evaluate what he’s saying. He makes all kinds of assumptions, based on detailed knowledge of each state, showing that polls are wrong. That the wrongness would add up to six percent nationwide (the steady margin shown in the RCP average) seems very doubtful to me.

Gerald M. writes:

Your correspondents who cling to the IBD poll like a fiend to his dope, and denounce the others as “crap,” are ignoring three relevant facts. First, instead of a 2 point lead, IBD now shows (polling through Sunday) Obama with a 5 point lead, outside the margin of error. Second, all of the national public polls at RCP, including IBD and Foxnews, are trending Obama, showing him opening his lead.

Third, I’ve read the counterarguments that say McCain will win. They vary from highly speculative, to highly imaginative, to highly improbable, to highly…crap. All qualify as wishful thinking.

I’m not happy about an Obama presidency (although I will be delighted to see McCain crushed). But an Obama presidency is what we’re going to get.

MP writes:

I live on the northwest side of Chicago, the center of Democratic Party power in Illinois. People I’ve talked to who are connected with the local Alderman’s office are livid over the prospect of Barack Obama winning. Many have openly bad-mouthed Obama.

Moreover, this northwest side neighborhood has barely any Obama/Biden lawn signs. There is maybe one Obama/Biden sign on a block of 20 houses. There are at most three Obama/Biden signs within a one-to-two block radius of Governor Rod Blagojevich’s own home. Funnily enough, not even the governor’s home has a Obama sign. Apparently, the Alderman’s office has no money with which to give out signs. People have to purchase them for $2.50 a piece.

It is certainly questionable whether Obama will win if the seat of Democratic power in Illinois is not enthusiastic about Obama.

LA writes:

Why do they say they’re against Obama?

MP replies:

They don’t like his rhetoric. They don’t like the way Hillary was pushed aside.They think he is too young and inexperienced. I did detect some concern over his being black (remember, Chicago is a very segregated city).

Posted by Lawrence Auster at November 03, 2008 04:22 PM | Send