The expanded Democratic House majority will not be as left-wing as people think

In an objective article in the Washington Post that would be inconceivable in the New York Times, Chris Cillizza analyzes “five myths” about the election. The whole piece is worth reading, but the myth he must hopefully critiques is this:

Now that they control the White House and Congress, Democrats will usher in a new progressive era.

Not likely. At first glance, the numbers do look encouraging for proponents of a new New Deal era in government: Obama claimed at least 364 electoral votes and more than 52.5 percent of the overall popular vote, while Democrats now control at least 57 seats in the Senate and 255 in the House.

But look more closely, and you see a heavy influx of moderate to conservative members in the incoming freshman Democratic class, particularly in the House. Of the 24 Republican-held districts that Democrats won in 2008, Kerry carried just three in 2004. Democratic victories on Nov. 4 included Alabama’s 2nd district (where Kerry took 33 percent of the vote) and Idaho’s at-large seat (where Kerry won just 30 percent). In fact, according to tabulations by National Journal’s Richard E. Cohen, 81 House Democrats in the 111th Congress will represent districts that Bush carried in 2004.

The fact that roughly a third of the Democratic House majority sits in seats with Republican underpinnings (at least at the presidential level) is almost certain to keep a liberal dream agenda from moving through Congress. The first rule of politics is survival, and if these new arrivals to Washington want to stick around, they are likely to build centrist voting records between now and 2010.

Here is another of the myths:

The Republican Party suffered a death blow.

There’s no question that losing six Senate seats and 24 House seats (not to mention the White House) wasn’t a step forward for the Grand Old Party. But there are two good reasons to believe that Republicans will be back on their feet sooner than many people expect.

First, much of the Republicans’ permanent political class has concluded that electing Sen. John McCain as president would have amounted to applying a Band-Aid to a gaping wound. Given the state of the party—bereft of a signature new idea and without many fresh faces—plenty of Republican operatives have come to subscribe to what I’d call the Ra’s al Ghul theory of rebuilding: Ghul, a villain in the movie “Batman Begins,” advocates destroying the city of Gotham to rebuild it from the ground up. “It is beyond saving and must be allowed to die,” he says—a sentiment echoed by many Republicans these days, who argue that hitting rock bottom was the only way to allow new faces and ideas to emerge.

So now the GOP establishment has finally come around to what I and other “in the wilderness” conservatives have been repeating obsessively for years. And Limbaugh calls himself the cutting edge of societal evolution.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at November 16, 2008 03:44 PM | Send