Doug Hoffman, the Hinge of Fate?
William Kristol is a man of many predictions. I don’t think he has a very good record. I remember, for example, hearing him confidently declare at Patrick Buchanan’s first American Cause conference in 1993 that liberalism was finished. But
the prediction he wrote yesterday is so interesting, and so overblown, and so hopeful, that I couldn’t resist passing it along:
If … [Conservative candidate Doug] Hoffman still beats the Democrat in this Obama+5 district—and if he does so precisely after running against Owens as a likely rubber-stamp vote for Pelosi on health care and other issues—doesn’t that send a shudder down the spine of all Democrats in competitive districts?
Here in America the people rule.
So, on Wednesday morning, don’t at least 40 Democrats march into the Speaker’s office and tell her to pull the bill?
Here’s the whole piece:
Kristol: Why Pelosi May Fail
Answer: the people.
First of all, the new Rasmussen survey finds 42 percent favoring the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats—down a bit from a week ago. 54 percent of the public is opposed. 23 percent of all voters strongly support the plan, with 44 percent strongly opposed.
Second, there are elections tomorrow. In Virginia and New Jersey, the Democratic candidates for governor will run 15 to 20 points behind Obama’s showing a year ago (in 2008 Obama won Virginia by six, New Jersey by 16). This is a pretty stunning one-year swing in two not-insignificant states. And many of the voters who are swinging are similar to voters who live in the competitive congressional districts Democrats picked up in 2006 and 2008.
So Virginia and New Jersey alone could give a fair number of Democratic congressmen reason to pause before they walk the plank in the House for Nancy Pelosi’s health care plan.
What could cause the plank to collapse is a Doug Hoffman victory in NY-23.
Obama won NY-23 last year by five points. So in an open seat race this year, a Democrat should have a good shot. Indeed, that’s precisely why Obama plucked the popular Republican incumbent from the seat to be his Army secretary—Rahm thought it was a likely pick-up. Then the task got easier for the Democrat, Bill Owens, thanks to the fiasco of the Scozzafava pick, with all the in-fighting among Republicans that followed, culminating in her dropping out and endorsing the Democrat. So, among other consequences, the de facto Republican candidate has only the Conservative line, with the confusion that may entail for some GOP-inclined voters, and there have been a number of absentee ballots already cast by Republcians for Scozzafava.
If, after all that, Hoffman still beats the Democrat in this Obama+5 district—and if he does so precisely after running against Owens as a likely rubber-stamp vote for Pelosi on health care and other issues—doesn’t that send a shudder down the spine of all Democrats in competitive districts?
Here in America the people rule.
So, on Wednesday morning, don’t at least 40 Democrats march into the Speaker’s office and tell her to pull the bill?
Posted by William Kristol on November 2, 2009 12:47 PM |
- end of initial entry -
James N. writes:
Subject: Hoffman at Stalingrad
OK, OK, I don’t know if Massena is exactly like Stalingrad. But, as at Stalingrad, some myths will be dissolved and some new legends will be born.
If Hoffman beats the Republican AND the Democrat, after getting a shove forward from Our Lady of Wasilla, a lot of things are going to change on the right. More Hoffmans will appear, for one. The coalition between Republicans and Democrats to repress right-wing tendencies in the GOP will be exposed. And, Mrs. Palin’s stock will go up another few points, except I suppose among crabby traditionalists :-)
If Hoffman loses, the RINOs will be vindicated, more conservatives will take up stockpiling ammo and dried food, and next year’s congressional elections will have a dearth of conservative candidates. Frank Rich and Mo Dowd will trumpet what happens when “haters” force “diversity” out of the GOP. And, worst of all, in a sense they may be right.
For there to be any future in rightist gains through voting, Hoffman really MUST win this election. The circumstances are fortuitous. The candidate is good, and the locale is perfect. If not now, when? If not here, where? If not Hoffman, who?
Not long to wait.
A. Zarkov writes:
Let’s not forget about another Congressional race of potential significance: the California 10th District. This race is a special election to fill the seat vacated by Ellen Tauscher. Here we have the Democrat John Garamendi running the against the Republican David Harmer. I am helping the Harmer campaign as a volunteer. A victory for Harmer would deal the Democrats a severe blow, as the 10th District was carefully gerrymandered since 2002 to make it a safe seat for the Democrats. If the Republicans should win here on November 3, along with New York and Virginia, it would send shock waves through Democratic leadership. But that’s a big if. Garamendi started off 20 points ahead in the polls. That later shrank to 2 points, but a recent poll indicates Garamendi is now ahead 10 points. It’s possible the last poll is in error, but I have no reason to believe that other than wishful thinking.
The campaign workers seem intelligent, friendly, enthusiastic and dedicated. Working the phone banks to get the Republican voters out a major pattern emerges: almost no young people. My call list on Sunday looked like the roster from a geriatric convention. How are Republicans going to win future elections with the demographics against them? Why are young people so alienated from this party? Does the leadership realize they are headed towards extinction? If they do, then why do they continue to support more Hispanic immigration when that can only accelerate their demise? The volunteer workers I’ve talked to appreciate the problem, let’s hope that can percolate to the top.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at November 03, 2009 01:42 AM | Send