The solution to declining oil reserves?
(Note: a commenter takes strong issue with Mr. Zarkov’s position.)
A. Zarkov writes:
I recommend that people read Physics for Future Presidents. The author writes about what he thinks a president should know and the presentation is largely non-technical with no equations.
I read about 90% of the text in the bookstore, and I found it well written and sensible. He covers global warming (very critical of Gore), terrorism, energy, oil, radiation and nuclear waste. I was happy to see him discuss the coal-to-oil generation, which effectively puts a long-term ceiling of about $50 per barrel on oil. I wish people would understand that we can have all the oil we need for a few hundred years with coal-to-oil plants. This is an old technology that dates from the 1920s. Hitler ran his whole military on synthetic oil. South Africa uses it. As long as oil is less than $50, coal-to-oil is not competitive. If the U.S. really wanted to be self-sufficient in energy, we could do so in a short time. It’s all about price, not supply. Of course there would be objections based on global warming and pollution, but let’s face it, the environmentalists will object to anything that works.
Palin promotes herself as an energy “expert.” Why then doesn’t someone ask her about the Fischer-Tropsch (coal-to-oil) process? I strongly suspect she would be floored by such a question. Since Alaska is an oil producing state, surely she should know all about sources that compete with drilled oil.
- end of initial entry -
Edward Di Bella writes:
I wish to respond to the comment by A. Zarkov regarding coal-to-liquid fuels and his assertion that such liquids can provide for our needs for hundreds of years at a long-term ceiling price of approximately $50 per barrel.
This is dangerous nonsense. Various commentators have warned for years that reserve to production ratios are usually wrong and that we have far less recoverable coal than many have been led to believe.
The recent report by Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler of the Energy Watch Group in Germany, published in 2007, maintains that international coal extraction is likely to peak within 20-25 years, perhaps as soon as 15 years. In terms of energy content of coal currently being mined, effective US extraction already peaked around 2002.
I urge your readers to examine the executive summary at least.
For a broader discussion of these issues, I highly recommend a new book by Richard Heinberg, Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis.
Heinberg’s work is a concise overview of the various problems associated with the expected replacement of petroleum and natural gas with coal. With specific regard to coal-to-liquid technology, yes, the methods are known and proven. Implementation on such a massive scale, however, must take into account the diminishing quality of mined coals, problems with transportation infrastructure, the cost and availability of steel, as well as the volatility of the broader economy. Ultimately, there are no “solutions” to the problems of declining fossil fuel reserves, only adaptations.
Alan Levine writes:
I have a comment on A. Zarkov’s enthusiasm for coal to oil conversion:
While I would be great surprised if today’s chemical engineers could not do a better job in turning coal into oil than those of the 1930s, the German experience with making synthetic oil from coal is nothing to be enthusiastic about. Their synthetic oil plants were enormously costly to build and operate, suffered frequent deadly accidents, and produced enormous amounts of pollution.
January 15
James P. writes:
A. Zarkov writes:
Palin promotes herself as an energy “expert.” Why then doesn’t someone ask her about the Fischer-Tropsch (coal-to-oil) process? I strongly suspect she would be floored by such a question. Since Alaska is an oil producing state, surely she should know all about sources that compete with drilled oil.
A question to ask Obama is why, if he sponsored a successful Senate amendment in 2005 “to establish a program to develop Fischer-Tropsch transportation fuels from Illinois basin coal,” he has not taken any action to apply the Fischer-Tropsch process to solve our national energy problems since becoming President.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at January 14, 2010 07:38 AM | Send