Is opposition to Obamacare dropping?

A. Zarkov writes:

A summary of polls on Obamacare shows the spread between approval and opposition narrowing. See this graph at Polling.com. The situation might actually be even worse. To see this, click on the “Tools” button, then on the “Filter” button. Now on the “Filter Results” menu, select the middle item “IVR … ” then un-check “Rasmussen.” You will now get the same plot with the Rasmussen polls eliminated. Notice the opposition to Obamacare has been falling since early February to where we have about only one point difference between those opposed to those who favor Obamacare. Even if we don’t eliminate the Rasmussen polls, the trend shows a narrowing.

I think there might be a bias in Rasmussen’s polls. While he polls “likely” voters instead of “Adults,” or “Registered Voters,” I don’t think this explains the consistent pattern of Rasmussen polls being a outlier to the bulk of the other polls. An analysis of this question is on my list of things to do.

Perhaps this is why Obama and Pelosi are fighting so hard at this point. They might sense that the issue is moving in their favor, and passing Obamacare won’t lead to a severe backlash in November. This is not a good trend, and I don’t know why the public is turning in favor of passage. In any case don’t be surprised if this monster does pass.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at March 14, 2010 03:23 PM | Send