Do not cease from mental fight

Once again the media and the Democrats are building up the feeling that Pelosi-Obama will win. The CBO report showing a deficit reduction resulting from the bill has been touted as good for the Dems (though how subsidies for the health insurance for 30 million people could result in a reduction of the deficit seems fantastical). There is tangible discouragement on our side. The Republicans look sober. Charles Krauthammer on a TV show said he thinks the bill is going to pass. Friends I’ve spoken with in the last day seem pessimistic.

Let us restore some perspective: the CBO report was expected; all that the Republicans can do at this point is stand around anyway; and Krauthammer said last week that in the long run we cannot stop the government takeover of society, only delay it. We should not treat as a representative of our cause someone who doesn’t believe in it. And of course Krauthammer has never even been a conservative; he is a social liberal who supports the legalization of illegal aliens, who at least tilts toward homosexual marriage (“After seeing the lineup of people seeking to get married in San Francisco, I think the burden is on those who say that gay marriage should be denied”) and who favors the total disarming of the American people (“Ultimately, a civilized society must disarm its citizenry if it is to have a modicum of hope of domestic tranquility of the kind enjoyed in sister democracies like Canada and Britain”). But because he wants an assertive foreign policy and has opposed (though now he has preemptively surrendered to) Obamacare, he’s a “conservative.”

So let us turn away from the gloom created by the defeatist pronouncement of the non-conservative Krauthhammer and look at things from a different angle. The whip count at The Hill, a non-partisan site, makes defeat of the bill seem entirely possible. There are now 36 Democrats in the “Firm No, Leaning No, Likely No” category, just two short of the 38 needed to defeat the bill. The Hill has a brief description of each member’s position, and everyone under that category has made definite statements indicating a no vote, based on what sounds like clear conviction.

There is also a list of 48 Undecideds. Based on their statements, quite a few in that list seem likely No’s.

Let’s say that of the 36 “firm, leaning, likely” No’s, 30 end up voting no, eight short of the number needed to defeat the bill. Out of the long list of 48 Undecideds, it seems entirely possible that eight will vote no, bringing the total Democrats voting no to 38, stopping the bill.

This game is very much alive. It is absolutely a mistake to give in to discouragement at this point.

- end of initial entry -

LA writes:

In line with my observations about the meaning of The Hill’s whip count, Minority Leader Boehner said on Thursday:

EXCLUSIVE—Rep. John Boehner (R., Ohio), the House minority leader, tells National Review Online that as of late Thursday afternoon, Democratic leadership “still doesn’t have the votes” to pass their health-care bill, and that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) is “prepared to sacrifice her members, and her speakership, so that she can plant the flag of universal health care in the ground.” Boehner says this weekend will be a waiting game—“If the speaker doesn’t have 216 votes locked down, she will not go to the floor. If she’s short, she knows that there is no way she can pick up two or three votes on the floor.” On that same point, he admits that “if this comes to the floor, it’s already over … though I still don’t know how she can get there [to 216] ….I’d never put myself in this box.”

March 19, 11:30 a.m.

A. Zarkov writes:

The Hill lists my representative, Jerry McNerney as “undecided.” I’m skeptical. Since his election he’s shown himself to be a sock puppet for Pelosi. He comes across as a eunuch, and won’t face his constituents, and never gives a straight answer to any question. On the other hand, unlike most of California (aka Northern Mexico) his district is basically a Republican one. We got him courtesy of George Bush, and he’s extremely vulnerable for 2012. Perhaps he knows that and realizes he’s a goner if he votes for Obamacare. In my opinion, he’s a goner no matter how he votes on the health bill, so he might as well keep his masters happy and get some kind of consolation prize out of them. Unlike most California Democrats, he’s actually an intelligent man, and I’m disappointed in him. If he were willing to engage his constituents, and show some willingness to resist his party’s leadership he could even win.

I think he will face either David Harmer or Elizabeth Emken in 2010. Either one will give him a tough race. The Daily Kos thinks McNerney is all but re-elected because the Republicans are “tearing themselves apart.” They like Emken because they think she supports Obamacare because she wrote a letter advocating an pro-autism amendment. Had they bothered to check her website, they would see she opposes Obamacare. They obviously know nothing about what’s happening in CD-11.

Charles T. writes:

The leftists are experts at psychological operations. Our discouragement always works to their advantage; but only if we give in to discouragement. Leftists are also experts at telling the same lie repeatedly. A conscience is not in their tool box. The best way to oppose them is to take a page right from their playbook; repeatedly challenge their positions with truth-telling.

You wrote: “This game is very much alive. It is absolutely a mistake to give in to discouragement at this point.”

We have a very good chance of winning if we will continue to tell the truth and to flood our congressmen with our opposition to the current healthcare legislation.

LA replies:

That’s why I despise Charles Krauthammer for his guru-like pronouncement on Fox that the bill will pass.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at March 19, 2010 01:57 AM | Send