Trende: Congressional Dems facing “perfect storm” in 2010 elections

Looking closely, I would say even scientifically, at the trends at work in this year’s congressional elections, political analyst Sean Trende (that’s his real name, I love it) at Real Clear Politics sees the clear possibility of a historical loss by the House Democrats equaling or surpassing the three greatest losses by the presidential party in midterm elections since the Civil War—1874, when the Republicans lost 96 seats;1894, when the Democrats lost 125 seats; and 1938, when the Democrats lost 79 seats. He writes:

… I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility—not merely a far-fetched scenario—that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

Two or three months ago, I said that even if the health care bill failed then and there, I expected the Democrats to lose 40 seats and the House majority because of their attempt, up to that point, to pass it; but that if the Democrats persisted in trying to pass the bill and passed it, I thought they would lose 100 seats. So Trende’s statement and mine are in sync. Of course a prediction of a 100 seat loss is way, way out there. But I’ll just say this, because it comes from the heart. If the Democrats, after the monstrous things they have done to the country, do not lose at least 40 seats and control of the House, I will be devastated.

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John Hagan writes:

I’m cautiously optimistic that the individual mandate in the health care bill will be struck down by the Supreme Court, though I think about 75 Democrats being booted out of the House of Representatives this fall may help the Court see this issue even more clearly in our favor.

Jake Jacobsen writes:

This is all fine and good but let me rain on the parade and the perfect thing to provide that precipitation is the Thomas Sowell story you take note of below. So long as Republicans refuse to believe we are in a war we can elect them by the bushel load and it will make no difference. While we make nice with the left, the left never yields an inch, which if you put on your thinking cap can only end one way.

You have accused me of being a Gnostic for saying that I don’t think there will be any real difference if we elect Republicans, but I would counter that you are substituting hope for a clear eyed assessment of reality.

Which major leftist programs have Republicans ever rolled back in any real way? How many leftist programs (No Child Left behind) have Republicans instituted? How long until Republicans initiatve the ethnic cleansing of white Americans through another existential amnesty push?

I know I tend to aggravate you but, seriously, can we stop pretending that electing Republicans accomplishes anything other than slowing down our eventual doom? [LA replies: you’re acting too victimized. I post comments by you all the time. I disagreed with you on one point, and now you translate that into the notion that you aggravate me.]

I’m not saying that there is no difference between electing Republicans and Democrats but what I am saying is that there isn’t enough difference between them to do us any real good.

This feels like the definition of insanity to me, we fought GWB for almost a decade and as soon as Obama was elected all was forgotten and forgiven? Nope, I’m not that cheap of a date. This carnival ride is broken and I’m looking for a real fix not the traditional conservatives’ duct tape solution of electing Republicans who hold them in contempt.

I’m bracing myself to learn what new and exciting thing I have just become, Gnostic? Cynic? I can’t wait!

LA replies:

And Jake’s point is what? That we should not wish for, not hope for, not work for, the defeat of the Democrats and the stopping of their agenda. There’s no difference that matters between Paul Ryan and Kent Conrad. That there’s no difference worth a damn between Eric Cantor and Steny Hoyer.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at April 15, 2010 09:55 AM | Send