Illegals planning to leave Arizona

At VFR you don’t just get analysis, you get predictions from the cutting edge of societal evolution. Yesterday at 5:47 p.m. Eastern Time I wrote that the liberals’ fear-mongering scenarios about a police state under the new Arizona law would not even have a chance of being realized, because in most cases the illegal aliens would simply decamp from the state on their own, ending Arizona’s illegal alien problem:

Illegal aliens know that under this law they will be liable at any time to be stopped, arrested, and deported. This highly unpleasant prospect will make Arizona a radically less attractive place for them to reside in. Therefore, when the law comes into effect, illegal aliens will stop coming to Arizona and those who are there will start to leave…

Yesterday at 6:29 p.m. Eastern Time Yahoo posted an AP story, “Illegal immigrants plan to leave over Ariz. Law.” The story was linked at Lucianne.com at 3:58 a.m. this morning.

Most of the illegals interviewed by the AP are planning to go to other states in the U.S., such as California, Texas, and Utah. Excellent. The Arizona law, if it survives court challenges and goes into effect, will create a competitive market among states based on enforcement of the nation’s immigration laws. Those states that don’t pass a law similar to Arizona’s will end up with all the illegals, which will lead most of the illegal alien-attracting states to pass such a law. Which will leave most of our Mexican undocumented visitors (or “undocumented Democrats,” as an L-dotter puts it) with no option but to depart from the U.S. altogether. Which makes the Arizona law an absolute threat to the liberals’ agenda for the rapid Hispanization of the U.S. Which is why the liberals have declared all-out war against the Arizona law.

Alternatively, we may see a division between those states that choose like Arizona to enforce the nation’s laws and expel illegals, and those that chose to continue harboring illegals. And that in turn could be the beginning of the voluntary separation of the United States into two nations, one liberal, the other conservative. See Jeffersonian’s proposal at VFR with discussion, plus follow-up.

Here is the AP article, followed by the first several comments at Lucianne.com. (By the way, the AP story at Yahoo has over 5,000 comments. Can you imagine posting your thoughts at a forum with 5,000 comments? Who would read your comment? Talk about the voice of the individual being lost in the mass.)

Illegal immigrants plan to leave over Ariz. Law
By AMANDA LEE MYERS, Associated Press Writer
Wed Apr 28, 6:29 pm ET

PHOENIX—Many of the cars that once stopped in the Home Depot parking lot to pick up day laborers to hang drywall or do landscaping now just drive on by.

Arizona’s sweeping immigration bill allows police to arrest illegal immigrant day laborers seeking work on the street or anyone trying to hire them. It won’t take effect until summer but it is already having an effect on the state’s underground economy.

“Nobody wants to pick us up,” Julio Loyola Diaz says in Spanish as he and dozens of other men wait under the shade of palo verde trees and lean against a low brick wall outside the east Phoenix home improvement store.

Many day laborers like Diaz say they will leave Arizona because of the law, which also makes it a crime to be in the U.S. illegally and directs police to question people about their immigration status if there is reason to suspect they are illegal immigrants.

Supporters of the law hope it creates jobs for thousands of Americans.

“We want to drive day labor away,” says Republican Rep. John Kavanagh, one of the law’s sponsors.

An estimated 100,000 illegal immigrants have left Arizona in the past two years as it cracked down on illegal immigration and its economy was especially hard hit by the Great Recession. A Department of Homeland Security report on illegal immigrants estimates Arizona’s illegal immigrant population peaked in 2008 at 560,000, and a year later dipped to 460,000.

The law’s supporters hope the departure of illegal immigrants will help dismantle part of the underground economy here and create jobs for thousands of legal residents in a state with a 9.6 percent unemployment rate.

Kavanagh says day labor is generally off the books, and that deprives the state of much-needed tax dollars. “We’ll never eliminate it, just like laws against street prostitution,” he says. “But we can greatly reduce the prevalence.”

Day laborers do jobs including construction, landscaping and household work for cash paid under the table. Those jobs have been harder to find since the housing industry collapsed here several years ago.

Standing near potted trees and bushes for sale at a Home Depot in east Phoenix, Diaz, 35, says he may follow three families in his neighborhood who moved to New Mexico because of the law. He says a friend is finding plenty of work in Dallas.

Diaz says he has too much to lose by staying—he’s supporting a wife and infant son back home in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, across the border from El Paso, Texas.

“They depend on me to survive,” he says. “I’m not going to wait for police to come and arrest me.”

Jose Armenta, a 33-year-old illegal immigrant from Mexico’s western coast, is already planning to move to Utah within the next 20 days because of a combination of the economy and the new law.

“A lot of people drive by,” he says as he watched nearby cars speeding past, “and they yell, ‘Hey, go back to Mexico!’”

Analysts say it’s too soon to tell what lasting effects the law will have on the state’s underground work force, which also includes baby sitters, maids and cooks.

A study of immigrants in Arizona published in 2008 found that non-citizens, mostly in the country illegally, held an estimated 280,000 full-time jobs. The study by researcher Judith Gans at the University of Arizona examined 2004 data, finding that they contributed about 8 percent of the state’s economic output, or $29 billion.

Losing hundreds of thousands of unskilled laborers wouldn’t hurt the state’s economy in the short term, but it could limit the economy’s ability to grow once it recovers, says Marshall Vest, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management.

Legal workers who are willing to take any available job now will become more choosy if the unemployment rate falls back to low levels seen before the recession hit.

“That’s really the question, as to whether the existing population is willing to work those (low-level) jobs,” Vest says. “I think economics provides the answer. If job openings have no applicants, then businesses need to address that by raising the offered wage.”

Some illegal immigrants, however, intended to stick around.

Natalia Garcia, 35, from Mexico City, says she and her husband—a day laborer—will stay so their daughters—both born in the U.S.—can get a good education and learn English. The couple have been living in Arizona illegally for the last 10 years.

“Mexico doesn’t have a lot of opportunities,” she says. “Here, we work honestly, and we have a better life.”

Olga Sanchez, 32, from southern Mexico, lives in Phoenix illegally with her two brothers, who are 21 and 17. While the youngest boy is in high school, all three work and send money back home to their parents.

“This law is very bad for us,” says Sanchez, who gets about $250 a week cleaning three houses. “I’m afraid of what’s going to happen.”

She says the family is going to wait and see if the law takes effect and what the fallout will be before deciding whether to leave. The law is certain to be challenged in court; Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff already are considering lawsuits.

“All I ask from God is a miracle for us to stay here and work,” she says. [end of AP story]

Some comments at Lucianne:

Reply 1—Posted by: Jombie, 4/29/2010 4:16:37 AM

I thought it was “impractical” or even impossible to get illegals (undocumented Democrats) to leave, so we have to naturalize them all.

Reply 2—Posted by: Bulletthole, 4/29/2010 4:32:01 AM

That many illegals! No wonder Arizona had to do something! Washington sure failed the State. I can’t imagine what it cost the state in Medical and freebies for illegals.

Reply 3—Posted by: mws50, 4/29/2010 5:06:55 AM

I’m upset!! Texas should have done this first … I hate getting beaten by Arizona …

Reply 4—Posted by: Spidey, 4/29/2010 5:17:08 AM

The whole solution to illegal immigrtaion is self deportation,not fences or amnesty.All the government needs to do is enforce the laws already on the books and the problem would be solved. The liberal’s nswer to all crime is legalize everything.White liberals who are always fighting for all these phony minority rights wouldn’t get caught dead living in their neighborhoods. They don’t own business so they don’t have to worry about stealing.These people could lose a loved one due to a DUI accident and still support illegal imigration because all they see in the mirror is votes.

Hopefully the surrounding states will move to do the same thing,otherwise they’re going to get Arizona’s fleeing illegals.

Reply 5—Posted by: miceal, 4/29/2010 5:51:47 AM

Take note Utah, they are heading your way …

Reply 6—Posted by: mickeymat, 4/29/2010 5:57:55 AM

Wow, that was easy. Who knew?

Reply 7—Posted by: clayusmcret, 4/29/2010 6:11:37 AM

A law … actually stopping … illegal activity…. wow! Good on’m!! Maybe Arizona has something there.

Reply 8—Posted by: strike3, 4/29/2010 6:12:25 AM

Wow, this has to be a record. A law goes into effect a week ago and it’s already working.

Reply 9—Posted by: andyboy, 4/29/2010 6:21:37 AM

This law has a chilling effect on illegal activity and fails to give criminals the same protections afforded to law-abiding citizens.

- end of initial entry -

Karl H. writes:

The pure tautology of the statement in the referenced story that the Arizona law “…also makes it a crime to be in the U.S. illegally…” speaks volumes about the value liberal society places on the rule of law.

David Levin writes:

I don’t for a moment believe that the illegals are going to self-deport. Attrition through enforcement only works when ALL entities, including the Feds/ICE, work to boot them out of the workplace and Sanctuary policies are done away with as Arizona has done now. ICE has their hands tied by Obama and Napolitano. The illegals will squat or simply move to another state. There will be altercations and riots. Many of my conservative friends expect this. CA will never pass such a law because of the wussies—both Democrat and Republican—in state government here including the Governor and prospective Governor Moonbeam. I therefore agree with your “alternative” theory. Law and order is going to become the order of the day, except here in CA. I never thought I’d see the day when this happens, but I’m seeing a surge in the law and order movement across the country with illegal immigration as the main issue.

Ferg writes:

I have a real complaint with this law. It will drive many of these illegal up here to friendly Minnesota. We have enough already. As it is, no American can get a job with a roofing company up here the way I used to when I was between regular jobs. And crime will go up, particularly at the famous “Mall of America” also known as the “Mugger Mall.” Keep them down in Arizona where they belong is what I say. :-)

Don Hank writes:

You wrote:

“Alternatively, we may see a division between those states that choose like Arizona to enforce the nation’s laws and expel illegals, and those that chose to continue harboring illegals. And that in turn could be the beginning of the voluntary separation of the United States into two nations, one liberal, the other conservative.

Make that:

“Alternatively, we may see a division between those states that choose like Arizona to enforce the nation’s laws and expel illegals, and those that chose to continue harboring illegals. And that in turn could be the beginning of the voluntary separation of the United States into two nations, one liberal and bankrupt, the other conservative and thriving.”

But then the conservative states would need a new law that would declare all leftists illegal aliens and in violation of the law! I like it.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at April 29, 2010 10:37 AM | Send