In Bay area district, the victorious Democrat of 2006 is facing elimination

Alexis Zarkov writes:

The Republican wave has hit California’s 11th Congressional District. Here in the 11th we have the only Bay Area district where the Republicans have significant registration. The once popular Republican representative, Richard Pombo, got defeated by Democrat Jerry McNerney in the anti-Bush wave of 2006 (53 percent to 47 percent). In 2004 the same two had faced off and Pombo trounced him (61 percent to 38 percent). But in 2006 it was McNerney’s turn to do the trouncing (55 percent to 45 percent). This once safe Republican seat (since 1990) had evidently fallen to the Democrats because of changing demographics and the ever destructive George W. Bush.

What a difference two years has made. McNerney is now fighting for his political life. A new and unknown challenger, David Harmer, has come out of nowhere to become the front runner. Two months ago virtually no one had even heard of Harmer; now he’s leading in the SurveyUSA poll by six points. Running the poll data through my own mathematical analysis, I calculate a win probability for Harmer of 89 percent. This of course assumes the poll is accurate to within sampling variation, and the election were held 11 days ago among likely voters.

Last night Harmer and McNerney appeared in their one and only open debate of the campaign. Until then McNerney had steadfastly refused any kind of open forum. Evidently McNerney has become so desperate he broke down and agreed. As it turns out, that decision was a big mistake—Harmer destroyed him. I found it painful to watch a man go down so hard. Obama and Pelosi hung like a albatross around his neck as he had to defend his votes for Obamacare, the stimulus package and cap-and-trade. He couldn’t. I see clearly from this debate just how weak the Democrats must be in other parts of the country. It took at least four years for George Bush to destroy his party. Obama has evidently accomplished the same thing in a mere two. But let’s not count our chickens before they hatch.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 25, 2010 09:53 AM | Send