That (literally) incredible Cain lead

Reported by The Daily Caller via Yahoo two days ago:

In news sure to inject shock and awe into the Republican political primary season, a Zogby poll released Thursday showed Herman Cain leading the Republican field, topping former front-runner Mitt Romney by an astonishing 20 points. Cain would also narrowly edge out Obama in a general election, the poll found, by a 46-44 margin.

If you think this means anything, you’re fantasizing. Cain doesn’t even have a campaign organization in the early states, let alone in the later states.

Moreover, as a correspondent points out, now that Cain has become the frontrunner in the polls, he will become the focus of criticism in the upcoming debates, whereas up to this point he has had a free ride. When his opponents subject his much-touted 9-9-9 tax plan to even a little scrutiny, it will be instantly discredited in the eyes of the public, along with Cain himself. At present something like half the country doesn’t pay taxes at all. The 9-9-9 plan would impose a nine percent income tax and a nine percent national sales tax on tens of millions of people who are presently paying no federal taxes. The sales tax will also result in a net large increase in taxes for the middle class. When these facts are made clear, my correspondent says, the Cain bubble will go the way of the Palin bubble and the Trump bubble and the Bachmann bubble and the Perry bubble and the Christie bubble before it. Romney—he confidently predicts—will win the nomination and then go on to win the election handily.

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Jim C., who sent the item, writes:

I like Cain, but he’s not in Romney’s league.

PG writes:

The payroll tax is gone.

Irv P. writes:

There is no Bachmann bubble. Her campaign is going very well in Iowa, where they are putting all their resources. She is staying under the radar right now, preferring to put all her eggs in the Iowa basket. She will win the Iowa caucus in early January and be a top tier candidate again. There is no attempt to do well in New Hampshire, but the bump she gets from Iowa will insure a decent showing. Then on to South Carolina for her most important victory and the momentum will be established for her to secure the nomination (if we traditionalists are lucky). She is our best hope to have some important issues near and dear to our hearts get dealt with especially if we make our voices loud, and heard early in her Presidency.

I agree with Buck O. that “we are a small minority of believers who don’t know how to act.” The whole thread where that quote appears is brilliant but it doesn’t do us a bit of good if we have no political clout. Michele Bachmann is the only person with a hat in the ring who has a world view that even resembles ours in any way. She can give us the clout I’m referring to. People who underestimate her appeal to “regular” Americans are making a big mistake. I was in on a conference call with her recently, and although I did not get in to ask my question, for 45 minutes she answered question after question with enthusiasm, respect and intelligence. Most of the questions dealt with economic and cultural issues which gave her an opportunity to contrast herself with the other people running. Her theme is “you don’t have to settle.” There IS a real conservative in the race. She shrewdly avoids saying things that the press can use against her. At the same time she tells me between the lines that she is someone we can work with to get some of our ideas back into the realm of more than pipe dreams.

Lawrence, and all VFR readers, it’s time to start taking her seriously. She will give us a chance to figure out “how to act.” Our voices could be heard again. We have a chance to become less than a small minority of believers. She may be our last hope.

D. Edwards writes:

You write: “At present something like half the country doesn’t pay taxes at all. The 9-9-9 plan would impose a nine percent income tax and a nine percent national sales tax on tens of millions of people who are presently paying no federal taxes.”

If they work at all federal income tax along with the 7.5 percent FICA (Federal Insurance Contributions Act) tax is withheld from their paycheck. So at a federal tax rate of 10 percent, 17.5 percent of their income is withheld weekly from their checks. For a low income earner the federal tax is refunded at tax time but not the FICA. Additionally this would free up the employers 7.5 percent “contribution” to FICA.

Also, Mr. Cain was/is a supporter of the “Fair Tax” (no income tax 23 percent sales tax). So this seems to be a movement away by him from that position.

In addition, the last 9 is a corporate income tax now at 35 percent.

Kathlene M. writes:

“Romney—he confidently predicts—will win the nomination and then go on to win the election handily.”

While I agree that Romney could win the nomination by default, I don’t agree that Romney will win the election handily. I think a Romney vs. Obama election could really be a squeaker . Romney is viewed as equal to a McCain or a Schwarzenegger by many conservatives and Tea Partiers who are reluctant to vote for Establishment Republicans (a.k.a. liberals) again. Furthermore, the Democrats will attack Romney for his corporate ties, and will eagerly point out that he’s just another privileged white member of the Republican party. So I think it could really go either way.

If we’re stuck with Romney (and it’s too early to predict that he’ll win the primaries), he’ll need to win over conservatives by being emphatically clear about his positions on many issues. No more waffling and dancing around the edges. He’ll also need to choose a strong conservative VP. Otherwise I’m afraid that Romney, who himself is quite a slick salesman, will be outslicked by the slickest salesman of all: Barack Obama.

Jed W. writes:

Sorry to see your knock on Cain. He is far superior to Romney on every level. Romney is a RINO, who is hiring Bush foreign policy hacks to advise him. I’ll vote for whoever the Republican come up with but I hope you’re wrong on Cain. He’s got guts and way better instincts that Romney.

LA replies:

I was reporting the views of someone else, not stating mine. I don’t have a formed opinion of Cain. Though, on the horserace angle, I do find it hard to believe that a 65 year old political neophyte is going to go anywhere.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 09, 2011 05:07 PM | Send