RCP average now puts Romney slightly ahead in Florida

Last night, as I reported here, the RCP average in the humongous state of Florida (29 electoral votes) was a flat tie. Today, as reported at Drudge, a poll by three Florida news organizations including the Miami Herald shows Romney leading Obama in the state 51 to 44. The previous, pre-debate result by the same polling organization had Obama leading by 48 to 47. So Romney has picked up eight points as a result of the debate (unless you want to say I’m falling into the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy). With the new poll being added to Florida’s RCP average, Romney now leads in that state by 1.4 points. I believe this is the first time RCP has put Romney ahead there (though of course Florida is still a Toss Up state).

For the record, while I did not, like most of America on the right and the left, think that Obama during the debate melted into a Wicked-Witch-of-the-West-type puddle (I thought he mostly handled himself well), I did write, immediately after the debate:

I think that voters who are concerned about the economy will get the definite impression that Romney will get the economy moving again, and the even stronger impression that Obama will not, and that these perceptions will certainly help Romney.

However, I did not imagine the startling, dramatic shift to Romney we are seeing as a consequence of the debate.

- end of initial entry -

October 13

Dave T. writes:

It’s hard not to be encouraged by the dramatic shift in the polls following the first debate. The whole situation reminds of how Romney would beat back surging challengers during the Republican primary process with an aggressive, confident performance during the debates. Evidently, Romney is good at this sort of thing, so expect him to win the next two as well; however, I would be very surprised if the media allow him to drub their candidate like he did last time.

Currently, my sense is that if the election were held today then Romney would squeak out a victory. However, there’s still a lot of time left for Obama to regain his footing.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 11, 2012 07:54 PM | Send