Romney Gallup advantage shrinks

For six days running, from October 16 through October 21, the seven-day rolling Gallup average had Romney ahead of Obama by either six or seven points. In the seven-day rolling average concluding October 23, Romney is ahead by three points.

Still, for those six days, Romney was over 50 percent, and we are told that no presidential nominee who has had over 50 percent in the Gallup poll during the second half of October has lost the election. Of course, all such “rules” eventually fall.

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Mark Jaws writes:

These rules of elections yore (e.g., no presidential candidate who has gotten over 50 percent in the Gallup poll in the second half of October has ever lost an election) are like ice cream—easily melted. Much has changed in the past few decades—including the electorate. There are millions of “Lateeno” voters who barely speak English and who do not answer political surveys when their phone rings. We found that out the hard way on Election Day 2010 in Nevada. Members of the “Lateeno community” will be turned loose on this Election Day and swarm the polls in key states such as VA, CO, OH, NV, PA, FL. They will make the difference and will re-elect Obama. Think about that. The course of this country will be set by an academically backward demographic which uses welfare programs nearly twice as much as the white population.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 25, 2012 12:16 AM | Send