How Romney can win without Ohio

Let’s assume that the RCP Leaning and Likely Romney states all go for Romney, giving him 191 electoral votes, so that he has to pick up 79 EVs from the Toss Ups to get to 270. Let’s say he wins Colorado (9), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10). That puts him at 267. Where does he get the remaining three EVs he needs to win the presidency?

Rasmussen’s most recent poll in New Hampshire (October 23) has Romney up by two, and the RCP average for that state has Obama ahead by only 1.1. Many feel that Rasmussen by itself is more reliable than the RCP average which includes Rasmussen along with less reliable polls. New Hampshire, with its four electoral votes, is definitely within reach for Romney. Thus is it entirely possible that Romney could win the election without Ohio, thus “breaking” the rule that no Republican can be elected president if he loses that state.

I still personally feel that the odds are at least two to one in favor of Obama. Before you say I’m being pessimistic, let me point out that a one-in-three chance for Romney is vastly better than a one-in-ten chance, which was the way I saw things a month ago before the first debate. And I repeat that if Romney had logically, decisively, and with alpha-male mastery wiped the floor with Obama on Benghazi and the Arab Spring in the third debate, as he easily could have done, his odds now of winning the election, instead of being 33 percent, would have been well over 50 percent.

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Alan M. writes:

I see two likely outcomes. Either it is Romney by a landslide (because the polling his time around doesn’t reflect that the sampling is hiding the reality of voter sentiment), or Obama wins the electoral college while Romney wins the popular vote. I think the latter is more likely and has one side benefit—suddenly the left will be proclaiming the virtues of the electoral college and the wisdom of the Founders in setting up such a system which clearly resulted in the right outcome.

David B. writes:

Your analysis is a good one. Romney is stronger in the popular vote polls than he will be in the electoral college. The Democrats have a big advantage in the electoral college with states like California, New York, and Illinois in the bag no matter what. I can see Romney leading the popular vote by 2-3 points on election night and losing the electoral college and the election. Right now, there is a chance this will happen.

It may be wishful thinking on my part, but Romney may carry more states than expected. Sometimes an incumbent like Obama who struggles to hit 50 percent all year, falls flat on election day and loses.

Finally, there may be a below the radar sentiment to have someone like Romney as President instead of you-know-who. If only Romney had come on strong in the third debate. As a GOP businessman type, it wasn’t in him.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 27, 2012 02:49 PM | Send