Barone’s prediction

When it comes to substantive ideas about society, the “conservative” Michael Barone is a soulless liberal idiot—pro-homosexual “marriage,” pro-amnesty and open borders, etc. His area of competence is the mechanics of elections. And, in a startling column, he “goes out on a limb,” as he calls it, and predicts a strong Romney victory. Of fourteen battleground states, he says that the following will go for Romney: Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Only Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon, and Michigan does he predict for Obama.

The electoral outcome resulting from those predictions: Romney 315, Obama 223.

- end of initial entry -

November 3

D. Edwards writes:

As with Scott Brown in Massachusetts in 2010, as with the 2010 congressional elections (biggest turnover in 60 years), as with the Scott Walker recall election, as with the campaign against Chik-Fil-A, it comes down to the energy.

From Gateway Pundit:

2,800 supporters turned out to see Obama in Hilliard, Ohio this morning. 4,000 turned out to see Obama in Springfield, Ohio this afternoon. 3,800 supporters turned out to see Barack Obama at his final campaign stop today in Lima, Ohio.

20,000 to 30,000 supporters turned out to see Mitt Romney in Chester, Ohio tonight!

I think the wind is at our backs.

A pollster writes:

That’s a best case scenario for Romney but it’s plausible if you use the “Incumbents with under 50 percent lose” rule, because undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger. I believe Romney may be ahead in Pennsylvania in an ideal Platonic election, but the pro-Democrat fraud factor in that state is huge, and fraud may cost Romney Ohio too. That brings Romney down to 277, so he could still afford to lose Iowa or New Hampshire, or Colorado if he picks up Maine’s 2nd CD.

I think Romney has a 60 percent chance to win Ohio. If he does he has a 95 percent chance of winning and if he doesn’t he still has a 60 percent chance of winning, so I put his overall chances at over 80 percent (0.60*0.95 + 0.40*0.60 = 0.81).

Timothy A. writes:

I wonder if Barone calls himself a conservative? Certainly he is seen that way, but he seems to me to just be one of those old liberals whose positions have not shifted over the last 30 years while the entire political spectrum has ratcheted far to the left. Anyway, I always used to love to read through his Almanac of American Politics (this was 20 or 30 years ago) with its histories and analyses of the local cultures of America as reflected in its congressional districts.

Henry S. writes:

Agree with you 100 percent about hack Barone, but in this case I agree with him. The 2012 polls are mostly using the 2008 model, which assumes a D+8 advantage. I have read that in some cases the model weights Democratic turnout even more heavily than that. I don’t know why they are doing this.

I’m not buying it. I think Romney is going to win, and by a reasonably large margin. Not a Reagan-type thumping of Carter but not a squeaker either.

None of this vitiates what you are saying about the metastatic growth of fringe elements in American society, to the point where they can gang up on the sane core. It just means that in this particular election the sane core still has enough numbers to prevail. It may be our last.

However, ever since I jumped ship and became a true conservative, my predictions in the political arena have become very bad. I am not hooked into the majority culture anymore, and I’ve lost the knack of predicting how they feel. And I’m staying that way.

In any case, we’ll see what happens soon enough. You have my full permission to say, “I told you so” if I’m wrong.

Dave T. writes:

For what it’s worth, my own expectations prior to reading the article were exactly in line with Barone’s except for Pennsylvania, which I still think Obama will win by a very narrow result. Hence, I think the electoral outcome will be somewhere in the vicinity of Romney 295, Obama 243.

Henry S. writes:

For what it’s worth, I’m with Dave T. on Pennsylvania because too many of the Sane Core can’t break with their Democratic brainwashing.

What this election comes down to is the Fringe Crazies versus the Sane Core. Some of the Sane Core members will vote for Obama, none of the Fringe Crazies will vote for Romney. The election will be won by Romney because there are still enough of the Sane Core left to elect a reasonable Republican President.

The margin will be determined as to how many of the Sane Core who are cultural Democrats will heed their sanity, as opposed to their upbringing, and vote Republican. Electoral college voting must be factored into this, which complicates matters, but Fringe v. Sane is one clarifying way to look at it.

Steve Sailer’s way of interpreting this is Married versus Unmarried voters. There are married voters who act like Fringers, and single people who vote like Sane Core members, but marital status is a huge indicator as to who votes Republican in general elections. Especially when it comes to women.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at November 02, 2012 08:35 PM | Send